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Reconciling Views

Internet is consciousness that is inherently idiotic

internet is idiotic

examples:

  • short form tiktok like films that are optimized for attention grabbing and are such an attention drain
  • when somebody is posting liking somebody else on the internet they usually post equal or higher on the hierarchy ladder

World is a highly efficient place.

Efficient market hypothesis

"If it were so easy, why wouldn't everyone else have done it already?" Thus if something seems easy and obvious to do, you must be missing something in it's difficulty However if an idea seem ridiculous on the surface, you can rest assure that less people have thought about it deeply.

Specifically for economic markets this is the idea that any predictable nature in the market will be exploited to maximum potential by everyone who knows about them. If you know a stock is underpriced, it makes sense to buy it until it is priced to equilibrium. This is how markets work.

Pro

  • Naval claims this. And a followup conclusion is that there are rarely openings, opportunities. e.g. biology the way your hand skeleton, tendons work is highly efficient and it would be hard to design it from scratch to improve it

VS.

  • I think this comes from the lack of imagination. There are wells of efficiency. Biology really optimize hand for the purpose of having four finger one direction and one in another. If we would want artificially build hand with that constraints using "human parts" and adding all functions this hand does currently it would be hard to come up with better design. But this view lacks imagination. How about adding 3rd hand or more fingers? I believe there are wells of efficiency – a limited areas that nature or culture excel in innovation and efficiency. But there are huge hole in between these silos there are huge breaks.
  • There is
    Foundation-Paralysis Effect 🎨
    that is highly inefficient and constraining (see example QWERTY vs. DVORAK)
  • Peter Thiel in his book "From Zero to One" sees the same thing in a technology. e.g. in a startup world if there is a possibility for a business its probably already existing. It's really hard to do a new big startup because as soon as the technological opportuinty opens up somebody will figure out and go into it.

VS.

  • I believe there are hundreds of new social media startups possible right now with a technology we have currently but it's really hard to pull them off (idea, design, marketing).
    Paul Graham
    to explain why startups are possible in the world of large companies uses the following metaphor. When small planes are flying into big cloud it's not that they have radars. They cannot see where they are flying into. The reason it's safe to do is that this is humongous space and it's highly unlikely to crash with another plane.
    Paul Graham
    says that it's important and difficult excercise to distinguish weather some startup idea is impossible (yes, as soon as new technology opens new possibilities it is filled with new applications) or nobody thought about it or was able to bring a successful product. Patrick Collison asked why is this so hard to make a good app. There are so many bad apps. And I think that's the core of it. Why good apps are good is not obvious. There are many things synced, working that look minimalistic and obvious but took a lot of effort to arrive at.

In technology winner takes it all

Not sure if following is true. There are a lot of technologies that are existing in parallel. Maybe this applies more to technologies such as electrical circuits, algorithms.

If there are two competitors in the technology (does it more apply to technologies such as algorithms usually the one that is a little bit more effective tend to slowly snowball into a bit larger, a bit larger and eventually only