Over and under reaction to a group think 🎨

We are biased to think whatever a group (a group of people, important media site) is currently thinking, talking, valuing. On the other hand, we often don't regard some information as equally valuable because it wasn't endorsed by the group.

, an author of Superforecasters, describes that winning in the forecasting tournaments requires over and under-reacting to information. For me this might be corrected by asking myself a question would I value this information as much/as little if none/all of the people would talk about it.