From Superforcasting
100% Certain 93% (give or take about 6%) Almost certain 75% (give or take about 12%) Probable 50% (give or take about 10%) Chances about even 30% (give or take about 10%) Probably not 7% (give or take about 5%) Almost certainly not 0% Impossible
From Gwern
- “certain”
- “highly likely”
- “likely”
- “possible” (my preference over Kesselman’s “Chances a Little Better [or Less]”)
- “unlikely”
- “highly unlikely”
- “remote”
- “impossible”