Everything will be always the same as it was. People when catastrophes happen don’t believe what’s happening. 70% 9/11 survivors first talk to other people before escaping, when Vesuvio blew up a lot of peeps from Pompeii were just watching. See Base Rate and Growth Rate peeps in Read more in Black Swan by Balaji Srinivasan on Shane Parrish Show #78Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Can this bias be generalized to the: Illusion of permanence dynamic? Sub-bias: Solidified world illusion 🎨
A very similar dynamic is termed as congnitive conservatism – mentioned by as a failure to update their beliefs in response to failed predictions.Philip Tetlock