Main thesis: human civilization is very early.
How come we are outlier? Bc all civilization are graby so there are no future civilization.
yet this not really says how come in all possible timelines we appeared very early. Timelines are not dependent on the behaviour of aliens.
On earth like planet there could be 3-12 hard steps. On other planets because of its chemical structure could be a lot more or a lot less.
More on the theory
How many hard steps civilization has to go from dead matter to advanced civilization like us.
This steps are: pre-cariotic cells to u-cariotic cells, single to multi-cell organism, developing organs in the body
6 steps is a reasonable middle number but it can be also anywhere from 3 to 12.
Earth is relatively a short lived planned 5 billion years (yet the live appeared here)
5 billion (left axis) is earth. Why does the graph not represent shorter lived stars? Life could have appeared even quicker, right? Not sure, but maybe because there are less of them in the universe?