Social change is unpredictable
“Tocqueville, probably the greatest sociologist ever, at least one of the candidates if they gave an all-time greatest sociologist award: Tocqueville would be on the shortlist. He reported that no one foresaw the French Revolution. Nobody. Lenin was stunned by the speed and success of the Russian Revolution. Lenin. If anyone was an architect, it was Lenin. He had no idea. The Iranian revolution of 1979 was unanticipated, including by the participants. The idea that the country could turn round as Iran did, that was not expected. The Arab Spring was unanticipated by the best analysts in the United Kingdom and the United States. I saw this up close because I was in the White House at the time. When things happened in the Arab Spring, the leading experts were amazed. They didn’t see it coming.” via Cass Sunstein on 80000 hours Show
How change happens?
Preferences falsifications
What you say is influenced by what you know other people know.
Saudi Arabia’s man decided to let their wives work when they heard other man are okay with that.
“the former Nazi named Karl said, “Opposition? How would anybody know? How would anybody know what somebody else opposes or doesn’t oppose? That a man says he opposes or doesn’t oppose depends on the circumstances, where and when, and to whom, and just how he says it and even then, you must still guess why he says what he says.””
from the book They Thought They Were Free
Steven PInker stated similar thing when talking about explicitly stated things vs. not
Group polarization
People become more radicalized after a topic get discussed in public setting
Different thresholds
Zeros are people who don’t need any other engaged to take risk. Fives are the one that need five people. Infinites are never gonna take action
Interdependencies
In order social change to happen ones need to see zeros. Twos need to see ones. Fives need to see fours. Sometimes they are invisible to each other. That’s why public demonstrations are very effective in unleashing change and politicians like Putin are very scared about them.