Superforcasting

On diversity. Diversity is one of these words that’s been reduced to a cliché, but we have found in our work that cognitive diversity helps, and it helps in certain quite well-defined ways. If you want to create a composite that out-predicts the vast majority of the superforecasters, a good way to do it is not only to take the most recent forecast of the best forecasters in the domain, but it’s also to extremize that forecast to the degree that people who normally disagree, agree with each other. And when you have convergence among diverse observers, that’s a signal that the weighted average composite is probably too conservative and you should extremize. From

Lectures I watched: