attribution-substitution heuristic, we nicknamed it the bait and switch heuristic.Philip Tetlock: But it’s what you were pointing to earlier, it’s that you confront a really difficult question about climate change or a really difficult question about the economy or the Persian Gulf or God knows what. You can find a really difficult question and someone comes along and seems to have a lot of status and well dressed-Robert Wiblin: Smooth talker.Philip Tetlock: -smooth talker, well connected, well networked. And gives you a story, and you slip into answering another question. You’re no longer trying to answer the question at hand about China or the economy or climate. You’re trying to ask, does this person look like the sort of person who would know the answer to this question? And the answer there is a resounding, yes. This person clearly looks like it, and you run with it. You then act as though the answer to the easy question is also the answer to the hard question. You conflate the things in your mind.