Definition
Better-informed have trouble or are unable to pass knowledge to less-informed. This bias has large and overlooked consequences.
Hindsight bias and expert trap
The phrase âexpert trapâ was first used in 1989 by Camerer and Loewenstein. They saw it closely relating to Hindsight bias. - knowing the outcome makes people be falsely confident that they would have predicted the answer.
It is as if our brains are wishfully reconstructing the knowledge to fit the outcome. Therefore if a person is better-informed about the line of reasoning they may be less inquisitive about the knowledge, less motivated to look at it from first principles â and gleaning over the ingredients of the process, bending them to fit the outcome.
âStudy participants could not accurately reconstruct their previous, less knowledgeable states of mind, which directly relates to the curse of knowledge. This poor reconstruction was theorized by Fischhoff to be because the participant was "anchored in the hindsightful state of mind created by receipt of knowledge". Fischhoff, Baruch (2003). "Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty".
Tapping experiment metaphor
When subjects were asked to finger-tap a popular tune of their choosing they were hugely overconfident about how many people would get it. They estimated that 50% of people would get it whereas in reality, 1.33% got it. from 1990 Stanford experiment
I have concerns if that is a piece of solid evidence because this discrepancy may be attributed to a specific characteristic of this task. I treat this more as a potent metaphor for the dynamism of what happens when better-informed is passing the knowledge to less-informed.
Forgetting
We are constantly subjected to forgetting. We strengthen neural connections between ideas we actively use and therefore forget how it was not to understand it.
Experts are often worse at predicting reality Philip Tetlock
"Studies have found that deep expertise in a subject does not positively correlate with accuracy in judgment. As part of his research on forecasting, professor Phillip Tetlock conducted a study with 284 political experts, that generated over 80,000 informed (where the estimate matched the area of expertise of the individual) and uninformed predictions over the course of 20 years. Surprisingly, Tetlock discovered that specialists are less reliable than non-experts, even within their specific area of study. In fact, the study concludes that after a certain point, deepening one's knowledge about a specific topic is affected by the law of diminishing returns and can hinder the ability to accurately predict a certain outcome. The results of the study can be attributed to the fact that subject matter experts are more likely to suffer from confirmation bias and are more likely to feel the pressure associated with reputational damage, both of which can affect their ability to produce accurate predictionsâ from Link
Experts are often motivated by status rather than the truth
The more the expertise is driven by acquiring or guarding status, the harder it will be not to fall into the expert trap.
Even though this is a short explanation. This dynamic, that I call Hierarchy bias đ¨, is influencing in why Expert trap đ¨ is existing.
Robin Hanson sees this as one of the main functions of academia: âAcademia functions to (A) create and confer prestige to associated researchers, students, firms, cities, and nationsâ Link
This topic is extensively explained in Elephant in the Brain
I think this dynamic largely causes Replication Crisis
Education system: boring knowledge states and Richard Feynmanâs Fun to imagine
Expert trap đ¨ âs broad effect makes human knowledge hard to access. I think most of the education system is affected by it. Most student experience school as boring.
Instead of trying to understand things in the simplest possible way most people engage in the opposite. They use complex vocabulary and write too long books.
I think there is a way to communicate knowledge that is both exciting and revelatory by approaching it from the first principles, rendering it through real-life examples, and distilling it to the simplest possible form. We all heard a story of one teacher changing the life trajectory of a friend. Encoding knowledge that escapes the dynamics of the Expert trap is possible. See the incredible example where Richard Feynman explains complex physics ideas in the simplest way. See Fun to Imagine.
Civilizations with trapped knowledge
What if the majority of knowledge we circulate in our civilization is blocked by definitions that are rigid, rely on memorization, explain processes in a partial, local way, are tied to abstract formulas, and are disconnected from how they tangibly affect the world and neighboring disciplines
Counteracting Expert trap đ¨ : Feynman technique to learning
Richard Feynman thought that if he cannot explain an idea simply he didnât understand it well enough. I believe he practiced learning that effectively counteracts the dynamics of the Expert trap. When he was doing a PhD in physics, he would approach freshman students to attempt to explain complex theories in the simplest possible form. When he couldnât do it he would come back to learn more. He did it over and over again until he would land on knowledge descriptions that are simple to grasp.
Counteracting Expert trap đ¨ : Other approaches
When you have fresh eye note your impressions, because they will be gone.
When you learn something save things that were confusing (this is a lot of work so perhaps this may be only applicable to the ones who wants to teach)
In order to counteract Hierarchy bias đ¨ mechanism one can try to shift group culture and expectations. One priority could be to create an environment where participants feel it is a safe space to ask questions, even basic ones. One of my favorite twitter bios I stumbled upon is âAttempting to be the dumbest person in the roomâ.
Expert trap is closely related to the Creatorâs bias đ¨. See the definition and bias correction on the same page.
Expert trap and other biases
Expert trap đ¨ may be driven by a couple of other biases. Hindsight bias Once you know the answer to the question you will think that you would have guessed it. Hierarchy bias đ¨. People's subconscious motivation to acquire knowledge may be less about getting things right but elevating one in a hierarchy. Confirmation bias Once you formed an opinion you will tend to select and believe in information that strengthens it and less for information that undermines it. And at the root of all these biases is My-side bias What is mine is better. Whichever definition is mine should be questioned less.